I liked this piece. Though I do have one quibble with your assessment on Nate Silver. Dude works for Polymarket. Keep that in mind as you read several of his latest pieces that have very little to do with data and more his attempts to insert his opinions.
They can be manipulated. In the case of polymarket, there was s big shift caused by a single investor. Far right conservative Peter Thiel is an investor in the platform and can write it off as a loss.
Yeah. He’s been pretty open about it. But here is a link. https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket
Interesting. Doh! Feel like I should've been aware of that lol
The betting markets more reliable. Unlike the media, the bookies have a financial stake in prediction not to lie to the public.
And as you’re seeing the betting markets can be manipulated by big money. So how reliable are they really?
Fair point John
I liked this piece. Though I do have one quibble with your assessment on Nate Silver. Dude works for Polymarket. Keep that in mind as you read several of his latest pieces that have very little to do with data and more his attempts to insert his opinions.
Does he work for Polymarket? I was completely unaware of that. Do you have a source?
Thanks for the kind words :)
Are they?
They can be manipulated. In the case of polymarket, there was s big shift caused by a single investor. Far right conservative Peter Thiel is an investor in the platform and can write it off as a loss.
Fredi9999 playing the odds :))
What's interesting though, in this case of manipulation, there's little counterparty to that.
Not that many asks on the book, so bids change odds very easily.
And then when the other candidate's odds dropped significantly, there wasn't much interest to bid what should be a really great offer
https://open.substack.com/pub/authenticintelligencepublication/p/us-election-odds-update-prediction?r=4btmnx&utm_medium=ios